Bangladesh held its national elections on January 7 – one of the first of over 50 countries holding elections in 2024 in a record year for democracy. The incumbent party – the Awami League – won a fourth consecutive term, winning 223 seats out of 300, which was widely expected as the main opposition party – the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)- boycotted the election in protest fearing the elections may not be free and fair.
The election day was largely peaceful, but the run up to the election was not. The country was rocked by rallies, blockades, violent protests by the BNP and its allied parties who were demanding a caretaker government to take over. There were mass arrests of opposition leaders and party workers; many of whom are now in jail or in hiding.
While the election result holds no surprise what do the results mean for Bangladesh’s economic growth, development, and democracy?
Polarised politics and consolidation of power
For a long time now Bangladesh’s politics has been polarised into two party camps. After Bangladesh’s return to democracy in 1991, elections have been fiercely competitive, with power alternating between the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. While both parties wanted to contest elections, neither of them trusted the other to hand over power peacefully if they lost.
Free and fair elections were ensured by a system of caretaker government, where a government headed by technocrats took over three months before the elections and prepared the country for the polls. This system was abolished in 2011, under the Awami League government, after a Supreme Court ruling that the system was unconstitutional.
Since 2014, the incumbent Awami League have won large majorities and held power in elections that were either boycotted or violently protested by the BNP. These elections, including the one in 2024, have consolidated the Awami League’s rule and established Bangladesh as a ‘dominant party state’ and deepened political polarisation.
There is a deep animosity between the leaders of these two parties – Sheikh Hasina and Khaled Zia. The party supporters are also deeply divided over who should rule. The voter turnout was 41 percent according to the election commission. This is contested by various organisations and the absence of the main opposition party means that the results will remain contested among a segment of the population.
The absence of an effective opposition in the Parliament will further weaken its effectiveness as an institution. The power is already centralised in the hands of the Executive branch of the government.
Shrinking Civic space likely to continue
This shift towards a dominant party state, has affected the quality of democracy in Bangladesh. The space for deliberation and public debate has shrunk overtime and is unlikely to be reversed. The government has passed various laws such as the Cyber Security Act, that allows government to act against those spreading extremism, hatred, sectarianism. With the Awami League winning a fourth consecutive term, this trend in politics is likely to continue.
The civil society groups that work on political and civic rights are worried that more restrictions may be placed on them. The CIVICUS monitor places Bangladesh among 28 countries whose civic space is closed. Whether the civil society actors can engage with the state over various issues, including development concerns, remains to be seen.
Challenges to sustaining growth
Changes in the democratic space has implications for a range of development outcomes. The Awami League’s legitimacy to rule is built on its ability to deliver both growth and social development. Bangladesh had done well economically under the Awami League government and Sheikh Hasina’s leadership.
The economy grew at a rapid pace even during the pandemic. The government handled the public health and livelihood crisis induced by the pandemic well. It rolled out vaccines quickly and distributed various social safety net and economic stimulus packages. But the rising energy costs, global inflation, and a fall in foreign reserves have meant that Bangladesh is facing a deep economic crisis. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a 4.7 billion dollars as a bailout package.
There is widespread concern about whether Bangladesh will continue to grow at a rapid pace. Its ability to do so depends on how the Awami League attracts international capital by improving the business environment mired by red tape, corruption, and distrust.
Need to address poverty to sustain legitimacy
Addressing poverty and maintaining the level of social development gains will remain a key area of concern to sustain legitimacy. Findings from the Covid-19 Learning, Evidence and Research Programme (CLEAR) show that the social safety nets did not adequately cover the urban poor. Findings also how that while people had built up distress resilience and managed to cope during the pandemic their resources and support networks are depleted as they deal with rise in food, fuel, and necessities.
Inflation has reached about 9.5 percent. Recent surveys by the International Republican Institute (IRI) and The Asia Foundation and BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD) survey that levels of confidence in the government to deliver social and economic development are lower than before. This means that a key test for the Awami League would be control price hikes and ensure that health, education, and other needs are met.
Whether the Awami League can and will continue deliver on development is open to question. Last November, the Minister of Commerce had remarked that women in his constituency were applying lipstick three times a day, which meant that there was no economic crisis. The ready-made-garment workers were disappointed by the outcomes of the recent wage negotiations, which was far below the living wages. The Prime Minster stated that the workers either could accept the package or take the risk of losing their jobs as the increasing wages meant global capital will go elsewhere. While these are some anecdotes that indicates addressing the current cost of living crisis may not always had top priority, legitimacy of the party depends on being able to tackle this crisis.
Future engagement opportunities to sustain development, growth and democratic practice
While the US and the UK have questioned the election being free and fair, it seems unlikely they will place sanctions on Bangladesh. The other major players, India, Russia, and China, which all have large investments in Bangladesh, have signalled that they will not meddle. It is very likely that the Awami League government will complete this term. This means that both the civil society and international actors will have to find ways to engage with the government.
Findings from the CLEAR programme show that during the pandemic there were opportunities for fostering state responsiveness and sustain citizen’s engagement in governance processes, which will be important to sustain. One of the key areas may be investing in building state’s technical capacity to deliver services. The other areas could be building citizen’s capacity for engagement with the state at the local level.
Addressing climate induced change will also remain a key area of concern that can be used to engage with the state. It is also important to keep on insisting on ensuring economic governance and human rights for all citizens of Bangladesh.
