Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns (2024)

Data Source: from January 1871 to May 2024 (~153 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 May 2024
Live Update: Jun 11 2024, 10:00AM Eastern Time Currency: USD

PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)

0.06%

1 Day

Jun 11 2024, 10:00AM Eastern Time

0.57%

Current Month

June 2024

The Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio can be implemented with 5 ETFs. This portfolio has a medium risk, signifying moderate fluctuations in value. It is suitable for investors with a balanced approach to risk and return, seeking steady growth while tolerating some level of volatility.

It's exposed for 30% on the Stock Market and for 15% on Commodities.

In the last 30 Years, the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio obtained a 7.50% compound annual return, with a 7.43% standard deviation.

Table of contents

Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns (1)

The first official book of Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns (2)

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Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

The Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight
(%)
ETF
Ticker
ETF
Currency
ETF NameInvestment Themes (Orig.Currency)
30.00

VTI

USDVanguard Total Stock MarketEquity, U.S., Large Cap (USD)
40.00

TLT

USDiShares 20+ Year Treasury BondBond, U.S., Long-Term (USD)
15.00

IEI

USDiShares 3-7 Year Treasury BondBond, U.S., Intermediate-Term (USD)
7.50

DBC

USDInvesco DB Commodity TrackingCommodity, Broad Diversified (USD)
7.50

GLD

USDSPDR Gold TrustCommodity, Gold (USD)

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of May 31, 2024

The Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:

  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
  • the reinvestment of dividends.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.

June 2024 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.

RAY DALIO ALL WEATHER PORTFOLIO

Consolidated returns as of 31 May 2024

Live Update: Jun 11 2024, 10:00AM Eastern Time

Swipe left to see all data

Chg (%)Return (%)Return (%) as of May 31, 2024
1 DayTime ET(*)Jun 20241M6M1Y5Y10Y30YMAX
(~153Y)
Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio-0.060.572.896.566.674.494.677.506.30
US Inflation Adjusted return2.894.803.320.301.794.844.09
Components

VTI

USDVanguard Total Stock Market-0.6210:00AM, Jun 11 20240.684.7616.0127.6414.9212.0510.449.15

TLT

USDiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond0.2810:00AM, Jun 11 20241.112.890.74-8.85-5.150.095.194.75

IEI

USDiShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond0.1409:59AM, Jun 11 20240.301.311.200.85-0.160.924.274.47

DBC

USDInvesco DB Commodity Tracking-0.3009:58AM, Jun 11 2024-1.07-0.302.1110.7210.53-0.294.102.62

GLD

USDSPDR Gold Trust0.2310:00AM, Jun 11 2024-0.591.6214.0718.0911.795.985.863.00
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1871
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Apr 2024. Pending updates, the monthly inflation is set at 0% for the subsequent periods. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.24% , 5Y: 4.17% , 10Y: 2.83% , 30Y: 2.54%

Live update: World Markets and Indexes

In 2023, the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio granted a 2.60% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of May 31, 2024

An investment of 1$, since June 1994, now would be worth 8.76$, with a total return of 776.45% (7.50% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4.13$, with a net total return of 312.75% (4.84% annualized).

An investment of 1$, since January 1871, now would be worth 11814.15$, with a total return of 1181314.75% (6.30% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 470.69$, with a net total return of 46968.86% (4.09% annualized).

Portfolio Metrics as of May 31, 2024

Metrics of Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio, updated as of 31 May 2024, provide a comprehensive overview of the portfolio's performance and risk characteristics.

These metrics include detailed data on returns, volatility, drawdowns and other key performance indicators. By examining them, you can gain insights into how the portfolio has performed over various time periods and understand its risk profile.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:

  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
  • the reinvestment of dividends.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.

RAY DALIO ALL WEATHER PORTFOLIO

Advanced Metrics

Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 31 May 2024 (~153 years)

Swipe left to see all data

Metrics as of May 31, 2024
1M3M6M1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
(~153Y)
Investment Return (%)2.891.426.566.67-0.784.494.676.577.506.30
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details 2.890.724.803.32-5.750.301.793.894.844.09
US Inflation (%)0.000.691.683.245.274.172.832.582.542.12
Pending updates, the monthly inflation after Apr 2024 is set at 0%.Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.

DRAWDOWN

Inflation Adjusted:

Inflation Adjusted:

1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)-9.25-20.58-20.58-20.58-20.58-20.58-37.02
Start to Recovery (# months) details 529*29*29*29*29*68
Start (yyyy mm)2023 082022 012022 012022 012022 012022 011929 09
Start to Bottom (# months)39999933
Bottom (yyyy mm)2023 102022 092022 092022 092022 092022 091932 05
Bottom to End (# months)2202020202035
End (yyyy mm)2023 12-----1935 04
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details
Start (yyyy mm)2023 082022 012022 012022 012022 012022 011929 09
Start to Bottom (# months)39999933
Bottom (yyyy mm)2023 102022 092022 092022 092022 092022 091932 05
Bottom to End (# months)2202020202035
End (yyyy mm)2023 12-----1935 04
Longest negative period (# months) details 536*4646464684
Period Start (yyyy mm)2023 062021 062020 012020 012020 012020 011925 07
Period End (yyyy mm)2023 102024 052023 102023 102023 102023 101932 06
Annualized Return (%)-14.95-0.78-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.03
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)-10.10-27.85-27.85-27.85-27.85-27.85-47.73
Start to Recovery (# months) details 533*33*33*33*33*124
Start (yyyy mm)2023 082021 092021 092021 092021 092021 091916 03
Start to Bottom (# months)3262626262652
Bottom (yyyy mm)2023 102023 102023 102023 102023 102023 101920 06
Bottom to End (# months)27777772
End (yyyy mm)2023 12-----1926 06
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details
Start (yyyy mm)2023 082021 092021 092021 092021 092021 091916 03
Start to Bottom (# months)3262626262652
Bottom (yyyy mm)2023 102023 102023 102023 102023 102023 101920 06
Bottom to End (# months)27777772
End (yyyy mm)2023 12-----1926 06
Longest negative period (# months) details 1036*59105105105341
Period Start (yyyy mm)2023 072021 062019 062015 022015 022015 021892 04
Period End (yyyy mm)2024 042024 052024 042023 102023 102023 101920 08
Annualized Return (%)-1.65-5.75-0.27-0.37-0.37-0.37-0.01
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress

RISK INDICATORS

1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
Standard Deviation (%)11.9011.8110.408.427.757.436.56
Sharpe Ratio0.11-0.300.240.400.670.700.35
Sortino Ratio0.16-0.430.340.550.900.950.50
Ulcer Index3.5112.049.427.005.254.414.58
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation0.56-0.070.430.560.851.010.96
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown0.72-0.040.220.230.320.360.17
% Positive Months details 58%50%56%60%65%66%63%
Positive Months71834721562391174
Negative Months518264884121667

LONG TERM RETURNS

Inflation Adjusted:

Inflation Adjusted:

1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized4.678.5710.2815.23
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized3.993.991.87
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized1.796.547.6210.91
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized1.181.18-4.65

ROLLING PERIODS

Inflation Adjusted:

Inflation Adjusted:

1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized27.4416.3513.0810.289.327.50
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized-19.45-2.933.133.996.10
% Positive Periods87%96%100%100%100%100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized85.6029.0620.2411.627.407.46
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized---1.353.935.65
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized24.2913.4210.467.626.924.84
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized-25.24-8.18-0.861.183.44
% Positive Periods82%92%98%100%100%100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized85.6029.0620.2411.627.407.46
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized---1.353.935.65
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Over all the available data source (Jan 1871 - May 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized47.7524.1320.9915.2312.5211.60
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized-24.95-12.66-3.711.872.823.26
% Positive Periods82%96%98%100%100%100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized85.6025.5913.957.514.523.49
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized-----0.46
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized58.2220.5017.1410.918.567.91
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized-25.24-14.36-11.08-4.65-1.460.32
% Positive Periods69%83%87%91%97%100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized85.6025.5913.957.514.523.49
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized-----0.46
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com

Terms and Definitions

  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Talking about withdrawal rates, how would you manage your early retirement with the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio? Read more here

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of two assets move in relation to each other. It is a statistical measure that describes the extent to which the returns of one asset are related to the returns of another asset.

Correlation values range between -1 and +1

  • A correlation of +1 indicates that the returns of the two assets move in perfect synchrony; when one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns also go up by the same percentage, and vice versa. This perfect positive correlation implies that the assets perform similarly in different market conditions.
  • A correlation of -1 indicates a perfect inverse relationship between the returns of the two assets. When one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns go down by the same percentage. This perfect negative correlation suggests that the assets move in opposite directions, providing a diversification benefit by reducing overall portfolio risk.
  • A correlation of 0 means that there is no linear relationship between the returns of the two assets. The returns of one asset do not predict the returns of the other.

COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS

Monthly correlations as of 31 May 2024

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If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

RAY DALIO ALL WEATHER PORTFOLIO

Drawdown periods

Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted

Data Source: 1 June 1994 - 31 May 2024 (30 Years)

Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 31 May 2024 (~153 years)

Inflation Adjusted:

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Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns (2024)

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